Pricewiser: Januari spannende maand energiemarkt

De gasprijzen zijn in december 2024 opnieuw gestegen ten opzichte van november 2024. Variabele gasprijzen namen met 5,1 procent toe, terwijl de tarieven voor vaste contracten (looptijd 1 en 3 jaar) een stijging van 4,5 procent en 3,4 procent lieten zien. In vergelijking met december 2023 zijn de verschillen beperkt: variabele tarieven lagen in december 2024 0,9 procent hoger dan in december 2023, 1-jarige contracten stegen in 2024 licht met 0,5 procent en 3-jarige contracten daalden met 1,2 procent.  

Januari lijkt een spannende maand te worden voor de energiemarkt vanwege de geopolitieke situatie rondom Rusland en groothandelsprijzen voor gas.  

Verwachtingen januari 

Een eerste blik op variabele prijzen voor gas in januari 2025 leert dat deze licht stijgen met 0,4 procent t.o.v. december 2024 en voor stroom licht dalen met 1,5 procent. Januari 2025 lijkt verder een spannende maand te worden op de energiemarkt. De geopolitieke situatie rondom Rusland blijft onzeker en de problematiek rondom gasleveringen in combinatie met dalende gasvoorraden kan in januari verder doorwerken in de groothandelprijzen. Energieleveranciers zouden deze hogere inkoopkosten kunnen doorvertalen naar consumentenprijzen voor stroom en gas waardoor met name huishoudens met een variabel contract een hoger tarief zullen krijgen aangerekend.  

Daarnaast voorspellen meteorologen een koudere maand, wat het verbruik van gas en elektriciteit verder zal aanjagen. En mogelijk ook de inkoopprijzen. In combinatie met hogere netbeheerkosten betekent dit dat huishoudens een hogere energierekening kunnen verwachten.  

Toch zijn er ook lichtpuntjes. De energiebelastingen dalen voor zowel stroom als gas in 2025, wat voor sommige huishoudens verlichting kan bieden.  

Stijging stroom in december 

De elektriciteitsprijzen zijn, net zoals voorgaande maanden, aanzienlijk gestegen in december 2024. Variabele stroomtarieven gingen met 6,1 procent omhoog ten opzichte van november. Een vast tarief met een looptijd van 1 jaar steeg met 3,6 procent en van 3 jaar met 2,9 procent.  

Hoewel de maand-op-maand stijgingen best groot zijn, laten de cijfers op jaarbasis een ander beeld zien: de variabele stroomtarieven waren in december 2024 4,2 procent langer dan in december 2023, terwijl 1-jarige en 3-jarige vaste contractprijzen met 18,2 procent en 27,8 procent zijn gedaald t.o.v. 2023

De daling op jaarbasis is een gevolg van de relatief hoge prijzen eind 2023. Toen stond de energiemarkt nog onder druk door externe factoren zoals de oorlog in Oekraïne en beperkte en onzekere gasleveringen.  

De prijzen wijzigen op jaarbasis nauwelijks voor langlopende contracten. Dit wijst erop dat de markt zich deels heeft aangepast aan de uitdagingen van afgelopen jaren.

Grafiek elektriciteit

Kopieer hier de code voor elektriciteit

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Grafiek Gas

Kopieer hier de code voor gas

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Letizia Luijs

PR-manager. Verhalenverteller. Nieuwsjager. Drinkt graag kopjes koffie met journalisten.

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